Abstract
Climate change poses significant threats to urban water distribution networks (WDNs) through altered precipitation patterns, increased frequency of extreme events, and rising temperatures. This study develops a resilience-driven design framework for urban WDNs that integrates climate change projections with hydraulic reliability and resilience metrics. Using a case study of a representative mid-sized city, we apply downscaled climate scenarios from multiple global climate models (GCMs) for the 2050s and 2080s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 pathways. A resilience index, adapted from Todini (2000), is incorporated into a multi-objective optimization model to design network layouts that balance cost, hydraulic performance, and resilience. Results show that climate change reduces network reliability by 12–18% by mid-century under RCP 8.5, while the proposed resilience-driven design improves system recovery capacity by up to 25% compared to traditional least-cost designs. Sensitivity analyses highlight the importance of pipe diameter redundancy and strategic placement of isolation valves. The findings provide actionable insights for urban water planners to enhance long-term system robustness under deep uncertainty.