Abstract
Urban water systems face increasing threats from climate change, including floods, droughts, and sea-level rise, often occurring as compound events. This study develops a multi-hazard resilience assessment framework integrating hydrological modeling, hazard quantification, and adaptive capacity indicators. Applying the framework to a case study city (Coastal City X) using climate projections for 2050 and 2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, we analyze flood, drought, and compound hazards. Results show that under RCP 8.5 in 2100, flood hazard increases by 35%, drought severity by 28%, and compound event frequency by 40%. Infrastructure improvements (e.g., green roofs, stormwater harvesting) can reduce flood risk by 22% and drought vulnerability by 18%. Governance and community engagement are critical for resilience. The framework provides a practical tool for urban planners to prioritize investments under uncertainty.
Keywords
urban resilience, water systems, climate change, multi-hazard, flood risk, drought, adaptive capacity, infrastructure planning