Select Regime cycles and political change in African autocracies Regime cycles and political change in African autocracies
Authors: Kumsa, Fikiru, Rösler, Lukas, Merkel, Wolfgang
Journal: African Journal of Current Research (AJCR), ISSN 1694-4577
Citation: AJCR 1(2), 2022-08-05.
DOI: 10.70878/ajcr.2022.b1266799
Type: Original Research
Abstract
Political change in Africa has been marked by discernible patterns around authoritarian and democratic rule. The rise of hybrid regimes, characterized by electoral autocracies, presents a complex dynamic, combining elements of both authoritarian control and democratic institutions. This article analyzes regime cycles by examining the interplay of political liberalization, transition, hybridity, and authoritarian consolidation across African countries from 1990 to 2020. The article moves beyond the dichotomous categorizations of democracy and authoritarianism by analyzing the emergence and consolidation of hybrid systems of rule. We introduce the original concept of “regime cycles” in Africa which explains the iterative processes of political change, that is patterns of contestation and authoritarian reactions to democratic backsliding and/or reversal. We use a mixed-method approach including quantitative analysis of political regime types and qualitative case studies to identify and explain these cyclical patterns. The findings highlight how incumbent governments in hybrid regimes manipulate democratic procedures to consolidate power and how opposition elements react to defend democratic opening. Overall, the analysis reinforces the idea that African states often remain trapped in a cyclical relationship between limited political opening, democratic backsliding, and authoritarian resilience, shaping the trajectory of governance across the continent.
Keywords
political change, electoral autocracies, hybrid regimes, authoritarian consolidation, democratic backsliding, Africa
Full Text
Political change in Africa has been marked by discernible patterns around authoritarian and democratic rule. The rise of hybrid regimes, characterized by electoral autocracies, presents a complex dynamic, combining elements of both authoritarian control and democratic institutions. This article analyzes regime cycles by examining the interplay of political liberalization, transition, hybridity, and authoritarian consolidation across African countries from 1990 to 2020. The article moves beyond the dichotomous categorizations of democracy and authoritarianism by analyzing the emergence and consolidation of hybrid systems of rule. We introduce the original concept of “regime cycles” in Africa which explains the iterative processes of political change, that is patterns of contestation and authoritarian reactions to democratic backsliding and/or reversal. We use a mixed-method approach including quantitative analysis of political regime types and qualitative case studies to identify and explain these cyclical patterns. The findings highlight how incumbent governments in hybrid regimes manipulate democratic procedures to consolidate power and how opposition elements react to defend democratic opening. Overall, the analysis reinforces the idea that African states often remain trapped in a cyclical relationship between limited political opening, democratic backsliding, and authoritarian resilience, shaping the trajectory of governance across the continent.