Abstract
Background: Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant threats to poultry production and public health, with Southeast Asia being a hotspot for outbreaks. Wild waterfowl are natural reservoirs, and their migratory patterns facilitate virus spread. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics at the wild bird–poultry interface is critical for surveillance and control.Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of AIV prevalence in wild waterfowl and poultry across Southeast Asia from 2005 to 2023. Data from 32 studies were synthesized using random-effects models. Spatial cluster analysis and temporal trend analysis were performed using GIS and regression models. Risk factors including wetland density, poultry density, and climatic variables were assessed.Results: Overall AIV prevalence in wild waterfowl was 8.2% (95% CI: 6.1–10.5%), with higher rates in dabbling ducks (12.3%) than in geese (4.1%). Prevalence in poultry was 3.5% (95% CI: 2.1–5.2%). Spatial clusters of high prevalence were identified in the Mekong Delta and central Thailand. Temporal peaks occurred during the winter months (November–February). Wetland density was positively associated with prevalence in wild waterfowl (OR=1.8, pConclusions: Our findings highlight the importance of wetland habitats and poultry density in driving AIV dynamics. Targeted surveillance at high-risk interfaces and during peak seasons is recommended. One Health approaches integrating wildlife, poultry, and human health sectors are essential for effective prevention.
Keywords
avian influenza, wild waterfowl, poultry, spatiotemporal dynamics, Southeast Asia, risk factors, surveillance, One Health