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United States 100,863,106
Cases: 100,863,106
Deaths: 1,106,860
Recovered: 98,283,998
Active: 1,472,248
India 44,674,667
Cases: 44,674,667
Deaths: 530,630
Recovered: 44,138,554
Active: 5,483
France 38,067,974
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Recovered: 36,974,097
Active: 934,784
Germany 36,557,861
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Brazil 35,408,852
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Recovered: 34,262,104
Active: 456,517
South Korea 27,331,250
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Active: 918,309
Japan 25,220,452
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Deaths: 50,344
Recovered: 20,754,250
Active: 4,415,858
Italy 24,488,080
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United Kingdom 24,024,746
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Russia 21,617,601
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Spain 13,614,807
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Vietnam 11,517,722
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Australia 10,754,429
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Argentina 9,739,856
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Active: 19,624
Netherlands 8,544,770
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Deaths: 22,920
Recovered: 8,498,809
Active: 23,041
Taiwan 8,369,226
Cases: 8,369,226
Deaths: 14,478
Recovered: 8,036,406
Active: 318,342
Iran 7,559,855
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Mexico 7,132,792
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Indonesia 6,680,203
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Poland 6,354,402
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Colombia 6,318,021
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Austria 5,576,695
Cases: 5,576,695
Deaths: 21,232
Recovered: 5,508,210
Active: 47,253
Portugal 5,546,290
Cases: 5,546,290
Deaths: 25,517
Recovered: 5,500,769
Active: 20,004
Greece 5,404,690
Cases: 5,404,690
Deaths: 34,309
Recovered: 5,338,821
Active: 31,560
Ukraine 5,341,284
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Deaths: 110,586
Recovered: 5,216,858
Active: 13,840
Malaysia 5,000,332
Cases: 5,000,332
Deaths: 36,713
Recovered: 4,941,114
Active: 22,505
Chile 4,937,047
Cases: 4,937,047
Deaths: 62,571
Recovered: 4,858,162
Active: 16,314
North Korea 4,772,813
Cases: 4,772,813
Deaths: 74
Recovered: 4,772,739
Active: 0
Israel 4,727,322
Cases: 4,727,322
Deaths: 11,878
Recovered: 4,704,016
Active: 11,428

Effect of External Debt on GDP And Exchange Rate in Nigeria, 1986-2018

Effect of External Debt on GDP And Exchange Rate in Nigeria, 1986-2018

ABSTRACT

The recent clamour by Nigerian government for external borrowing has necessitated the investigation of effect of external debt on real GDP and exchange rate in Nigeria. It covered a period of 33 years (1986-2018) and used annual time series secondary data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, 2018 edition, and other published materials. Research design adopted was ex-post facto research design. Analytical tools employed was Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) multiple regression analysis techniques with a battery of diagnostic tests such as Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test, Pearson correlation, and Jarque-Bera test of goodness-of-fit (normality). The stationarity test established that the variables are of mixed integration of order zero, one and two. However, result of the ARDL revealed that external debt exert negative and insignificant influence on real GDP growth, with a positive and statistically insignificant effect on exchange rate behaviour in Nigeria. The implication of the finding is that increased external borrowing (external debt) retards the growth of real GDP and promotes depreciation of naira in favour of US dollar. In conclusion therefore, external borrowing is not favourable to Nigerian GDP growth and naira appreciation for the period. On this background, it was recommended among other things that Nigerian government should work towards increasing her capital investment horizon internally instead of using borrowed funds to finance the key developmental indices.

Keywords: External Debt; Gross Domestic Product; Exchange Rate; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model

Authors: 1OGBU, Emenike Gerald Ph.D, 2OBINABO, Chinyere Rose Ph.D and 3ANEKE, N. Isaac

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